Mostrando las entradas con la etiqueta Complexity. Mostrar todas las entradas
Mostrando las entradas con la etiqueta Complexity. Mostrar todas las entradas

viernes, 20 de noviembre de 2009

La complejidad atrás de las decisiones de los entrenadores




En el mundo del fútbol americano el tema candente de esta semana ha sido la decisiòn controversial de Bill Belichick, en la cuál decide tratar de hacer un "first down" en cuarta y dos yardas por ganar en su yarda 28, y la jugada fracasa. La mayoría de los analistas han dicho que debìo haber hecho un "punt" y dejar que su defensa detuviera a Peyton Manning. Un artículo en Sports Illustrated indica que más bien las estadísticas están a favor de Bellicheck, y que su decisión daba más probabilidades (79%) de ganar que si hubiese hecho el punt (70%).

La realidad es que las decisiones de los entrenadores conllevan mayor complejidad de lo que se está considerando. El baseball se caracteriza por las supersticiones. Y resulta, en mis ojos, una gran crìtica de la eficiencia en el rendimiento de los jugadores. ¿Porqué la mayoría de los entrenadores deciden poner al cerrador hasta el ùltimo inning, cuando hay estudios que demuestran claramente que si el relevista es el mejor pitcher disponible debería tirar más innings que uno, dado que esto aumenta las posibilidades de ganar.

Por otro lado, las probabilidades llegan también hasta cierto límite. Digamos que Bellicheck sabe que las estadísticas están (o estaban) de su lado cuando decide jugársela en cuarta y dos yardas desde su yarda 28. Aùn así, si las posibilidades estaban de su lado, su decisión está equivocada por el simbólismo-emocional de sus repercusiones. Su decisión le envía un mensaje directo a su defensa que no confía en ellos para detener a Manning, y los desmoraliza para los siguientes partidos.

Y deben existir otro sìnnumero de factores que influencian directamente en el rendimiento de los equipos debido a las decisiones de los entrenadores. Por lo tanto, un entrenador exitoso es aquél que integra y aplica de manera más sistémica la multiplicidad de factores en la toma de decisiones.

Alejandro Beeche Van der Laat

miércoles, 26 de agosto de 2009

Twelve Simple Rules of Systems Thinking for Complex Global Issues



Twelve Simple Rules of Systems Thinking for Complex Global Issues
Louise Diamond, Ph.D.

The study of living systems – through biology, physics, mathematics, cybernetics,
ecology, complexity theory, chaos theory, systems theory, and other sciences – helps us understand the world we live in and how we can better navigate its rich, if sometimes daunting, complexity.

Our human systems at various levels of organization – the individual, families,
communities, affinity groups, organizations, nations, international entities, etc. – all exhibit the common dynamics of living systems.

We are increasingly aware that all our living systems – human and natural – are at risk today, as we face incredibly complex and interconnected challenges related to global security, environmental degradation, and inter-woven economies. Understanding the nature and dynamics of living systems, therefore, can shed light on how we think about our problems and our resources, and about the assumptions and the choices we make.

What follows are 12 basic concepts about living systems and their implications for policy considerations when dealing with some of our greatest and most difficult challenges.

Each ‘therefore,’ though stated simply, can be expanded out to include several other key concepts and implications for action.

Simple Rules:

1. In complex systems, all the elements or agents are interconnected, as in a giant
web. They are also interdependent – what happens to one affects all others.
Therefore: Connect the disconnected.

2. Complexity is the nature and condition of living systems and the world we live in.
What we know about complex systems is that there are multiple agents or
elements, combining and interacting in unpredictable and non-linear ways. This
means decisions often lead to unintended consequences. Therefore: Ground
yourself in unpredictability.

3. In that giant web of interconnectedness, the points or nodes where the agents meet
are the relationships, or opportunities for interaction. These interactions
determine what will happen to the system. The nature and quality of these
relationships, therefore, are critically important. Therefore: Create conditions
for quality engagements.

4. We know that all living systems exchange energy, matter, and information across
their boundaries. At any time there can be imbalances in these flows, stuck
places, over- or under-accumulation, etc. Therefore: Re-balance the flows
across boundaries.

5. All living systems develop patterns. Often these patterns are self-reinforcing and
become deeply embedded and difficult to change. Many of these patterns in
human systems are common and recognizable. Patterns also show up in similar
forms at different scales or levels of the system. Therefore: Re-pattern for
sustainability and well-being of the whole.

6. We know from living systems that everything is a whole in itself and at the same
time part of a larger whole. Therefore: Attend to ever smaller parts and ever
larger wholes.

7. Living systems self-organize through the interactions of their agents or parts. The basic format of that organization is networks – that is, groups of parts joined
together in a de-centralized way for some period of time. Therefore: Pay
attention to emerging networks.

8. Systems move between various degrees of stability and instability, order and
disorder. When the disorder, or chaos, becomes too great, things fall apart. When
the order is too rigid, things cannot grow or develop. Yet a certain degree of
instability, or the edge of chaos, can also be a powerful moment of creative
change. Therefore: Seek coherence within chaos.

9. All living systems exist within a single field of potential, where the observer is a player, our thoughts have consequences, and creative solutions emerge.
Therefore: Play the Field.

10. Living systems exist within their own unique context. For human systems, that
context is the narrative that gives meaning to our choices and actions. Therefore:
Articulate, communicate, and validate the stories you tell yourself.

11. The parts of living systems cohere around a common shared purpose. Therefore:
Define and revisit goals and purpose.

12. Living systems are learning systems. That is, they adapt from the feedback they
receive from their internal and external environments. Therefore: Learn and
change from inner and outer messages.

Alejandro Beeche Van der Laat

domingo, 5 de abril de 2009

La organización empresarial más grande del mundo es...



“Today, before any audience in the world, I can hold a Visa card overhead and ask, ´How many of you recognize this? ´ every hand in the room will go up. When I ask, ´How many of you can tell me who owns it, how it´s governed, or where to buy shares? ´ a dead silence comes over the room. Something incredible happened, but what, and how?



- Dee Hock – Former CEO and Founder of Visa
One From Many: Visa and the Rise of Chaordic Organization



The management philosophy behind Visa has made it one of the few 20th century´s most consistently successful companies, by building a global consortium that links more than 21,000 financial institutions, processes more than $2 trillion of purchases each year (about 60% of all credit card transactions), and integrates 1.3 billion cardholders, which rounds out to more than 1 in every 6 people in the world (Hamel, 2007, pg. 23-24). Even few well-informed business leaders recognize Visa as the largest business organization in the world… and the reasons for Visa´s relative invisibility relate directly to its success (Senge, P. on Hock, 2005, pg. Foreword). Therefore, what are the management practices, theories, methodologies, and applicability of this very successful organization?